11 Predictions for 2011
Here are 11 predictions for 2011 related to endurance running and walking.
If my predictions come true, it definitely will be an interesting year!
1. A new marathon world record for men or women will be set.
According to Wikipedia, the latest two men’s world records were set in 2007 and 2008 (both by Haile Gebrselassie), and the latest two women’s world records were set in 2002 and 2003 (both by Paula Radcliffe). So 2011 would mark three years and eight years since the latest men’s and women’s records, respectively, were last set.
Why It’s Interesting: Ryan Hall, who is the first American to run a half marathon in less than one hour, has predicted that the two-hour barrier for the marathon will be broken. Each new men’s record puts the world record closer to that two-hour barrier.
2. More races will go to a lottery system.
Organizers for the Chevron Houston Marathon in the summer of 2010 announced a lottery system for its event on 30 January 2011, claiming that this would be fairer to potential registrants after the experience of selling out the 2010 event in only a few days. In apparent response to negative reactions by many (as in, “This is not the New York City Marathon!”), organizers scrambled to announce that multi-year Houston veterans would be automatically accepted. But organizers kept the lottery in place.
Why It’s Interesting: Many runners and walkers are accustomed to no lottery system for many marathons and other endurance races. So expect complaints when their favorite race goes to a lottery system.
3. Barefoot runners will become less barefoot.
One of the chief arguments for barefoot running is that it puts the body in a more natural, less-injury-causing position at foot strike. But many people who are new to barefoot running quickly discover that there are many surface hazards — glass, nails, etc. — for which the simplest protection is some sort of covering over the feet (even if that covering is a barefoot-style shoe), NOT constant vigilance by the runner.
Why It’s Interesting: Barefoot-style shoe sales should increase as those barefoot runners who incur surface injuries decide that they need SOME sort of protection on their feet (just as many people who do manual labor wear gloves to protect their hands).
4. Non-barefoot runners will wear lighter shoes.
As more runners become aware of the barefoot-running trend and what it implies in terms of foot strike, more runners will ask for shoes with less heel cushioning and therefore less weight.
Why It’s Interesting: The heels of running shoes will drift toward less stability, and this will make walkers think a second time about wearing running shoes for walking, which usually involves landing on the heel.
5. Hydration will become more scientific.
Hydration has one of the biggest impacts on the performance of an endurance runner or walker. Recognizing this, Cambridge Consultants recently announced that it would be demonstrating at the 2011 Consumer Electronics Show a futuristic water bottle that will let a user know whether he or she is becoming dehydrated.
Why It’s Interesting: Although many endurance runners and walkers know the tip to consume in fluid ounces the equivalent of the weight lost in weight ounces, this tip relies initially on several weeks of weighing oneself as soon as possible after a long run or walk has occurred so as to develop a sensitivity to becoming dehydrated. If hydration monitoring becomes more scientific, this approach could revolutionize hydration in a way similar to the way that constant monitoring of the heart has revolutionized runners’ and walkers’ knowledge of their aerobic capacity.
6. Hydration devices will become more popular.
The news about the hydration-sensing bottle from Cambridge Consultants in 2011 will re-energize the discussion about and attention to the need for adequate hydration. This will cause more runners and walkers to pay closer attention to the hydration devices on fellow athletes and lead to greater sales.
Why It’s Interesting: There has not been a breakthrough in hydration for endurance runners and walkers since the invention of the hydration belt. Although hydration packs can hold at least two times more fluid than hydration belts, many runners and walkers do not like the weight of packs on their shoulders and backs. But longer distances demand more fluid, so look for at least one manufacturer to increase the fluid capacity of its hydration belt.
7. New fund-raising records will be set by races.
Everywhere you turn, you see endurance races raising ever-increasing funds for charities. If my prediction holds true that more marathons and other endurance races will switch to lotteries, then there should be a concomitant rise in charitable fund-raising as these same races offer charity slots for guaranteed registration.
Why It’s Interesting: The book Generations predicted in 1992 that the USA would enter a new “civic” cycle in 2003 and that it would take until 2010 for most Americans to recognize this cycle. Because this cycle is marked by more social cohesiveness, one could expect charitable giving to rise during the cycle.
8. Step beepers will become more popular.
A step beeper lets you set a repeating, audible cue with a rhythm that matches your cadence. For example, if you want to run at 185 steps per minute, then you can set a step beeper to beep 185 times per minute. Because the beeping from a step beeper usually draws attention from other runners or walkers, it effectively advertises itself.
Why It’s Interesting: As more runners and walkers wear step beepers in endurance races, expect confusion and irritation as multiple step-beeper wearers run or walk by one another.
9. Runners and walkers will become more cellphone-safety-aware.
A spokesman for the cellphone industry has dismissed the need for a cellphone-safety campaign for pedestrians. But growing evidence suggests that there is such a need. And this explains why I launched SpryFeet.com’s “Alert and Alive” pledge campaign a few months ago to urge runners and walkers to practice cellphone safety on the road or trail.
Why It’s Interesting: Unfortunately, if more runners and walkers are seriously injured or killed as a result of lack of safety with cellphones, then the cellphone industry may have to reverse itself publicly.
10. EFT will spread among runners and walkers.
EFT is the acronym for Emotional Freedom Techniques, an energy-psychology discipline that some call meridian tapping or psychological acupuncture. Although still considered to be experimental, there is growing awareness about EFT, which can help users to overcome physical as well as emotional pain, through movies such as OPERATION: Emotional Freedom (about using EFT to treat post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in combat veterans). And this growing awareness is bound to spread to endurance runners and walkers.
Why It’s Interesting: Nobody has yet applied EFT to endurance running or walking to any significant degree.
11. Knowledge of epigenetics will make endurance running and walking more popular.
“Why Your DNA Isn’t Your Destiny” — about the burgeoning scientific field of epigenetics — was the cover article for a January, 2010, issue of Time magazine. As explained in the article, “patterns of gene expression are governed by the cellular material — the epigenome — that sits on top of the genome.” And the Time article explains well how epigenetics has fascinating implications for how our behavior today can possibly affect our offspring for generations to come.
Why It’s Interesting: As more people understand the implications of epigenetics, they should feel more compelled to take better care of themselves — both physically and mentally. And this bodes well for a rise in popularity of endurance running and walking.
What are your predictions? Please leave a comment here. Thanks!
